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The Death of the Home PC

July 31, 2008

Introduction:

Thirty years ago, most people did not have personal computers in their homes. Ten years from now, history is likely to repeat itself!

Impossible you say? Computers have been steadily increasing their penetration of people’s homes worldwide since the late 1970s. Well, that’s certainly true and I don’t doubt it will continue. But notice I was referring to personal computers (PCs).

What’s the driving force behind my claim that PCs will soon be on the decline? Simple. Complexity and the availability of cheap easy-to-use replacements for the most-often-used functionality.

Complexity and its Twin, Tedium:

When personal computers appeared on the scene back in the late 1970s, their hardware and software complexity was limited. Today, the modern PC has at least 1,000 times more memory and a CPU that is at least 1,000 times faster. The software has grown in complexity at least as much, with software today being delivered on DVDs that hold nearly 80,000 times more data than a typical 5.25-inch floppy disk from an Apple II.

So what? Why should complexity have anything to do with home ownership in the homes? Well, twenty-five years ago when you turned on your personal computer and booted your DOS disk, you didn’t have to worry about your computer being infected with some nasty new virus or trojan that your OS vendor admits can only be safely removed by re-installing the OS. In the old days, this involved nothing more than rebooting your computer. Today it requires many hours of time (don’t forget you need to back up and restore your data in addition to re-installing the OS).

Wait, there’s more. Since PCs of this bygone era didn’t have hard disks and generally ran only one program at a time, they booted into simple, well-known configurations. You’d either boot directly from a program disk, or you’d boot from a factory-supplied DOS disk. Modern PCs have large hard drives with multitasking operating systems installed on them. When modern PCs boot, they load many programs which run simultaneously. As a result there are millions of times more possible software configurations on the modern PC than there were twenty-five years ago. It is impossible to test all possible configurations and some of them are unstable or broken. Every time you install software on your modern PC, you are taking the risk that your computer will stop working properly, and often in an unpredictable manner.

Without going into more tedious technical detail, suffice it to say that modern PCs are becoming more and more tedious to use, and require greater and greater levels of knowledge to maintain. If you disagree with me on this point, please ask yourself if you would consider yourself a professional computer user. If your answer is yes, then please go ask someone who is not a professional computer user what they think.

Modern Replacements for the PC: Set-top Boxes, Gaming Consoles, Cellular Phones

Let’s stop for a minute to examine what people are using their PCs for today, you will see that there are convenient alternatives for virtually everything:

• Gaming: Why spend time and money messing around with a complicated PC when you can buy a relatively inexpensive gaming machine and concentrate on your hobby without the distractions?

• Web browsing: WebTV was ahead of its time. Modern televisions are large enough and have high enough resolutions that you can browse the web from the comfort of your sofa using a wireless keyboard. The plethora of set-top boxes now available (TiVo, Apple TV, etc.) make this a viable and comfortable option for all the couch potatoes among us!

• Movies and Music: The same set-top hardware that lets you brows the web from the comfort of your couch also lets you play movies and listen to music. Online services are available from which you can purchase movies and music (iTunes store, for example). Additionally, many of the set-top boxes have built-in storage allowing you to store your own movie and music libraries on them. And if you want to expand your collection, the DLNA standard is allowing modern set top boxes to access network enabled external hard drives and play any media stored on them.

• Instant messaging: Here the modern cellular phone (Skype phone, iPhone, etc.) has given us access to instant messaging wherever we go. Be assured that the next time you’re in the public restroom, those beeps you hear from the stall next to you are not an alien relieving himself!

It is worth pointing out a few functions for which these specialized computers have not yet proven themselves viable PC replacements:

• Word processing: Who wants to use a pencil and paper in the twenty-first century? Unless you want to do your word processing in the living room on your set-top box, you’ll probably want a notebook computer if you need to write a lot.

• Running a business: If you are running a business and need to use spreadsheets, create overhead presentations, etc., then you will probably want a PC to empower you.

• Work: If you use a computer in your work and you would like to be able to work at home, then you need a personal computer. Hopefully your employer will provide one for you and take care of the maintenance.

Conclusion:

It is also interesting to note that if you needed a PC twenty-five years ago for anything but gaming, then you will probably need one today. If you didn’t (or would not have) needed a PC twenty-five years ago, then you probably don’t need one now, either. Furthermore, if you are lucky enough to be able to replace your PC with a gaming console and/or set-top box (you almost certainly already have a cell phone), you’ll probably wind up with a lot more free time to actually enjoy using them as well!

by Thomas Burke

Written by paydayla · Filed Under Technology 

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